The Kaya identity is an equation relating factors
that determine the level of human impact on climate, in the form of emissions
of the greenhouse gas carbon
dioxide. It states that total emission level can be expressed as the
product of four inputs: population, GDP per capita, energy use per unit of GDP,
carbon emissions per unit of energy consumed. This equation is both very simple
and tricky, as it can be reduced to only two terms, but it is developed so that
the carbon emission calculation becomes easy, as per the available data, or
generally in which format the data is available.
The Kaya identity is somewhat related to the I = PAT
equation. The main difference is that the Kaya identity is only valid for
CO2-emissions, while the I = PAT equation describes a more general impact–
Overview
The Kaya identity was developed by Japanese energy economist
Yoichi Kaya. It is the subject of his book Environment, Energy, and Economy:
strategies for sustainability co-authored with Keiichi Yokobori as the
output of the Conference on Global Environment, Energy, and Economic
Development (1993 : Tokyo, Japan).
Use in IPCC reports
The Kaya identity plays a core role in the development of
future emissions scenarios in the IPCC Special Report on Emissions
Scenarios. The scenarios set out a range of assumed conditions for future
development of each of the four inputs. Population growth projections are
available independently from demographic research; GDP per capita trends are
available from economic statistics and econometrics; similarly for energy
intensity and emission levels. The projected carbon emissions can drive carbon
cycle and climate models to predict future CO2
concentration and climate change.
Use in other scientific analysis
The Kaya identity is reviewed in a 2002 paper.
A 2007 article
uses the Kaya Identity in its analysis of recent trends in carbon emissions,
and finds:
... cessation or reversal of earlier declining trends in the
energy intensity of gross domestic product (GDP) (energy/GDP) and the carbon
intensity of energy (emissions/energy), coupled with continuing increases in
population and per-capita GDP. Nearly constant or slightly increasing trends in
the carbon intensity of energy have been recently observed in both developed
and developing regions. No region is decarbonizing its energy supply.
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